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Webinar: Inquiry into the Performance of the Opinion Polls at the 2019 Australian Federal Election

  • 28 May 2020 9:13 AM
    Message # 8996531
    Marie-Louise Rankin (Administrator)

    The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) and Statistical Society of Australia warmly invite members of SSA to a webinar giving an update on the

    Inquiry into the Performance of the Opinion Polls at the 2019 Australian Federal Election - Update of Progress

    on 10 June 2020,    1 PM AEST

    With presenters : Darren Pennay (on behalf of the Inquiry Panel) and Dennis Trewin (on behalf of the Advisory Board).

    About this webinar:

    The most recent federal election in Australia was held on 18th May 2019. All the published national election polls conducted throughout the campaign, including the last polls before polling day, showed, without exception that, nationally, the ALP had the support of the majority of Australian voters in terms of the two- party preferred vote. Based on the polls most commentators declared, with the usual caveat of ‘if this result is uniform across Australia’, there will be a change of government. Of course history tells us the Coalition government comprising the Liberal and National parties (LNP) was returned to office attracting 51.5% of the two party preferred vote compared to 48.5% for the ALP.

    Some pollsters were quick to announce a review of their performance or ponder as to what might have been the reason for failing to predict the correct outcome. The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO), the membership-based body representing employers in the Australian market and social research industry, was also quick to do, so launching their inquiry into the performance of the polls on 20 May 2019. A similar call was also issued by the Statistical Society of Australia to its membership on 11 June 2019 asking for volunteers to contribute to a report as to what might have gone wrong with the 2019 election polls. As a result, the inquiry into the performance of the national election polls at the 2019 federal election was formed. This inquiry was undertaken under the auspices of AMSRO but with the support of the Statistical Society of Australia.

    The purpose of this presentation is two-fold:

    a.      provide members of the Statistical Society with an update of progress made by the Inquiry; and

    b.      invite Statistical Society members to provide comments in relation to recently released discussion paper on the implementation of polling standards in Australia.

    The consultation period on the discussion paper is open until June 12, 2020.

    Submissions to the AMSRO Polling Inquiry Discussion Paper can be sent to

    or posted to:
    The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO)
    PO Box 635
    Broadway NSW 2007.

    This event is for members of SSA only. It is free, but you will need to register here. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. 

    This event will not be recorded.

    If you have any questions, please contact Marie-Louise Rankin.  

    Last modified: 2 Jun 2020 9:57 AM | Marie-Louise Rankin (Administrator)
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