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SSA Canberra Branch will be holding its next meeting on Tuesday 10th October in person and via Zoom. There will be the opportunity to meet for dinner afterwards in Canberra City.
Venue: The Gallery, Level 2, Cultural Centre, University Ave, Kambri ANU (The Gallery - Kambri). There is a single level, underground car park at Kambri, with elevator access directly into The Gallery, and two pedestrian access points (Car Parking Kambri | Australian National University | Care Park).
Date: Tuesday 10 October 2023
The zoom link will be open from 5.30pm. RSVP is not required. Full zoom details given at the end of the email.
Speaker: A/Prof Robert K. Niven, School of Engineering and Technology, The University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia.
Topic: Bayesian Inference for Construction of Inverse Models from Data
Abstract: This talk considers the inverse problem y =f(x), where x and y are observable parameters, in which we wish to recover the model f. Examples include dynamical systems or combat models with y=dx/dt and x=parameter(s), water catchments with y=streamflow and x=rainfall, and groundwater vulnerability with y=pollutant concentration(s) and x=hydrological parameter(s). Historically, these have been solved by many methods, including regression or sparse regularization for dynamical system models, and various empirical correlation methods for rainfall-runoff and groundwater vulnerability models. These can instead be analyzed within a Bayesian framework, using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) method to estimate the model parameters, and the Bayesian posterior distribution to estimate the parameter variances (uncertainty quantification). For systems with unknown covariance parameters, the joint maximum a-posteriori (JMAP) and variational Bayesian approximation (VBA) methods can be used for their estimation. In this seminar, the Bayesian theoretical foundations are first explained, and the method is then demonstrated for a number of dynamical and hydrological systems.
Biography: A/Prof Robert K. Niven is an academic in engineering at UNSW Canberra, Australia, with research interests in probabilistic inference, theoretical fluid mechanics and environmental contaminants. His work has been recognised by international fellowships, including Churchill, Fulbright, Japanese, Marie Curie and Endeavour fellowships, and substantial research grants. He is Editorial Board member of journals Entropy and Stat, and has led or played major roles in conference organisation (including AFMC, MODSIM and MaxEnt series of conferences). He is an elected Council member of the Australasian Fluid Mechanics Society, and is Lead Chair of the Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference (AFMC2024) to be held in Canberra, Australia, in December 2024.
Dinner: After the talk we will be holding a dinner at 7.15pm at Lemon Grass Thai Restaurant, 65 London Circuit, Canberra (Home (lemongrassthai.com.au)).
If you are interested in attending the dinner, please let us know by 5pm Monday 9 October by entering your details at SSA Canberra Branch dinner attendance sheet or contacting Warren Muller (firstname.lastname@example.org ; 0407 916 868). Please regard this as a firm commitment, not just an intention. For withdrawals after the deadline, please remove your name from the sheet and phone or text Warren (0407 916 868).
NOTE: We are offering discounts to SSA early career and student members who attend dinner! For this meeting, dinners will be a fixed charge of $10 for student members and $20 for early career members.
Statistical Society of Australia (SSA)
PO Box 213
Belconnen ACT 2616 Australia
02 6251 3647www.statsoc.org.auABN 82 853 491 081
Please direct enquiries to:
Marie-Louise Rankin, Executive Officer
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