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Statisticians and the polls

  • 11 Jun 2019 2:09 PM
    Reply # 7571757 on 7351312
    Deleted user

    One pollster has admitted to herding:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html

    "A leading market research agency tore up a poll showing Labor was in a much worse position than widely believed because it was worried the results did not match other published polls.

    In a revelation that sheds light on why the nation's pollsters failed to accurately predict the outcome of the election, Lonergan Research boss Chris Lonergan admitted junking the poll because he was "embarrassed" it was radically different to those of his competitors."

  • 21 May 2019 5:01 PM
    Reply # 7353116 on 7351312
    I look forward to reading it!
  • 21 May 2019 3:48 PM
    Reply # 7353078 on 7351312
    Adrian Barnett (Administrator)

    We've written an article for The Conversation today.

  • 20 May 2019 9:25 PM
    Reply # 7351419 on 7351312

    ACEMS posted this today: https://acems.org.au/podcast/episode4-surveys

    It's pretty relevant, but maybe it'll be interesting/useful if Scott/Adrian can do a follow-up in light of the 2019 election?


  • 20 May 2019 7:59 PM
    Message # 7351312

    In the media so far, I've read a data scientist (Bela Stantic) and a physicist (Brian Schmidt) talking about what went wrong with polls. So far I haven't read anything from a statistician, apart from the psephologists who are frequently in the media. Am I missing something? (and for the record, I'm an ex-physicist, so I'm not criticising!)

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