I have to comment on the mortality risk from the AstraZeneca vaccine. Across all age groups there have been 6 deaths from approximately 6 first doses, so an incidence of 1 in a million, which is what is being reported in the media.
However, if you look at the 30-49 age group, who are currently being urged to receive AZ instead of waiting for Pfizer, a different picture emerges
According to the latest TGA and ATAGI reports, the incidence of TTS in <50s is 3.4 in 100,000, or 1 in 30,000. In the 30-49 year old age group, there have been 8 Tier 1 (serious) clots and 4 deaths (1/2 in 30-39, 3/6 in 40-49). So among those who contract TTS in this age group, there's a death rate of 50%, leading to an overall death rate of 1 in 60,000 first AZ doses, or 1.7 TTS deaths per 100,000. This is higher than the expected deaths in this age group from COVID-19 in a low or medium risk scenario in this risk-benefit document. It's only when the scenario changes to high risk (3,544 cases per 100,000 in 16 week period) that there is a clear benefit from the vaccine. Is this where NSW or the other states with outbreaks are at the moment?
There isn't a gender breakdown of the TTS incidence, but I expect the mortality rate would be even higher in women, since they have had 3/4 deaths in this age group (5/6 deaths in all age groups have been women).
Admittedly there have only been a small number of deaths and I haven't calculated confidence intervals, but this incidence rate is 16.7 times higher than 1 in one million.
Conversely, the risk of death in the >60s, who are recommended to receive AZ, is much less than 1 in one million.