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COVID 19 Targets

  • 20 Sep 2021 6:16 PM
    Reply # 11102963 on 10972910

    Reply to Ken Beath

    It is interesting that the results in the link you provide are not reflective of the data reported by Statistics Canada (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html). Don’t forget to look at results on a per capita basis.

    They are also not reflective of the mainstream media banter in Canada (I give you one example, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-alberta-healthcare-icu-covid-1.6180219).

  • 20 Sep 2021 4:59 PM
    Reply # 11102824 on 10972910

    This https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/canada/ shows very little difference between provinces except for Prince Edward Island.

    It is interesting to look at New Zealand https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/new-zealand/ They have similar vaccination rates to Australia, but have been much better at controlling their epidemic.


  • 20 Sep 2021 10:41 AM
    Reply # 11102235 on 10972910

    One comment about Canada. Like Australian states, there are very large differences in the COVID situation between provinces. In the mid-western provinces (Alberta and Saskatchewan) there are lower vaccination rates and weaker restrictions (almost none until very recently) and the COVID epidemic is threatening the hospital systems. In the provinces further east (Ontario and Quebec) there are higher vaccination rates and fairly strong restrictions (e.g. mask mandates, vaccination passports, restrictions in numbers/densities in restaurants and public areas/events, limitations on visitation to residences). The overall stability in Canada mainly reflects the situation in Ontario and Quebec, as these are the most populous provinces.


  • 20 Sep 2021 9:27 AM
    Reply # 11102109 on 10972910

    If you read the Burnet Institute modelling the target is in fact 92% which their models assume occurs at the end of December. This results in a decline in new daily cases and eventually the epidemic ends. Hopefully this is a worst case, as when the 80% target is reached, if people want the vaccine it will take less than 2 weeks to get to 90% and health workers will have a nice Christmas which they will deserve by then. Otherwise new daily case numbers will keep increasing. I suspect that the reasoning is that by the time 80% is reached that many unvaccinated people will need a nudge to get them to be vaccinated, and that won't occur under lockdown. So we will probably still have some activities limited to the vaccinated, we will have increasing cases and deaths, and localised lockdowns which hopefully will encourage people to be vaccinated. One problem that is likely to occur is that the modelling assumes just a single population and we have considerable variation as we've seen in Western Sydney. Any area that ends up with an R effective greater than one will have increasing number of cases. The modelling assumes that contact tracing will work reasonably, and it hasn't worked well in parts of Sydney, so it is quite likely that some suburbs/LGA will end up with restrictions.

    On Canada, it currently has 69% of the population fully vaccinated and 6% half vaccinated, so as half vaccinated is about half as effective as full, that is 72% of the population effective vaccinated. Now if we were to obtain 90% fully vaccinated in over 16s which are roughly 80% of the population, we have about also 72% of our population effectively vaccinated plus we will have the 12-15 year olds. Canada currently has an effective R of about 1.0 so it looks right for Australia. 

    We should have an idea on final vaccinations fairly soon in NSW because 90% first vaccinations is expected in 2 weeks time. Some suburbs ave already at that rate. I wouldn't plan on Christmas at Byron Bay. The locals don't like vaccinations so it is likely to end up in lockdown once people start visiting from Sydney.

  • 20 Sep 2021 9:07 AM
    Reply # 11102085 on 10972910

    Morning everyone,

    I might be missing something here, if so please let me know. And I agree that fully vaccinated people should still be cautious!

    Looking at some of the other tables in the link Kym posted (attached). I would read them as quite a large difference between those who are vaxed and those who aren't?

    Expecially for those people < 39 years of age, where no-one who was fully vaxed died or was admited to ICU.  And only 1 person who received 1 dose was admited to ICU.  Compared to 44-85 people being admited to ICU who weren't vaxed (and 3-4 dying). 

    So it's looks like vaccination might give quite good good protection for those aged < 39? But it can get worse the older one gets (and I assume with more comorbidities).

    That said the numbers are pretty low for those aged < 39, so maybe some type of upper lever of the incidence would be worthwhile, using the rule of 3 or some such?

    2 files
  • 18 Sep 2021 6:02 PM
    Reply # 11098752 on 10972910

    Reply to Chris Lloyd

    The COVID vaccines are great vaccines, but they are nowhere near that good, especially for the delta variant! The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) has published age categorised relative incidences of hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths  for persons who are fully vaccinated compared to those persons that are not vaccinated, from a serious ongoing delta outbreak in Alberta, Canada (It is being reported that ICU triage and transferring ICU patients across Canada to other provinces will need to be implemented in a few days).

    The link is https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-severe-outcomes-covid-vaccination-1.6178449.

    The final results are:

     How many times higher the rate of severe incomes from COVID-19 has been for unvaccinated Albertans vs. fully vaccinated Albertans by age, over past 120 days

    Figures are calculated by dividing the rate per 100,000 unvaccinated people by the rate per 100,000 fully vaccinated people in each age range. Data current to Sept. 15, 2021.

    Age range

    Hospitalization

    ICU

    Death

    12-29 years

    33.0

    *

    *

    30-39 years

    23.9

    *

    *

    40-49 years

    26.6

    22.1

    8.0

    50-59 years

    33.0

    50.1

    31.0

    60-69 years

    29.1

    63.7

    19.8

    70-79 years

    19.9

    59.1

    23.3

    80+ years

    8.7

    19.1

    9.3

    *There were zero fully vaccinated people in these age ranges who were admitted to ICU or died

    Table:  Robson Fletcher/CBC Source: Alberta Health”

    The link gives more detail about the actual rate of hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths for persons unvaccinated, vaccinated with one  dose and fully vaccinated, that are inputs to the above table.

    The bottom line is that a person who is fully vaccinated in an environment with a high prevalence of delta COVID, still has reasonable risk of becoming very ill from COVID, especially if they have risk factors such as being older. In such environments, fully vaccinated persons still need to be careful.

    By the way, the numbers of reported deaths in the current delta outbreak in the USA is more like 10,000 per week than 10,000 per month.

  • 18 Sep 2021 12:19 PM
    Reply # 11098390 on 10972910

    "We do not expect to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated." Well, I think this is a bit of an unerstatement! In July there were 10,000 deaths in the US. How many were vaccinated? 80. So 99.2% are unvaccinated. 80 vaccinated deaths out of 330,000,000.. I will take those odds any day. 

    I find it disappointing that nobody in the epiemiology field are prepared to point out that removing restrictions on the vaccinated will not lead to any outbreak. This can be implemented with a rigorously inforced digital vaccine passport, like they do in mny oather countries now.

    And an additional side-benefit is that it would provide ain irresistible incentive for all but the most deranged to get vaccinated.

  • 2 Sep 2021 8:59 AM
    Reply # 10975437 on 10972910

    As a follow up, overnight a report has been tabled by the Ontario Science Table (which is the main consortium of academics advising the Ontario government on COVID response).

    https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Update-on-COVID-19-Projections_2021.09.01_English-2.pdf

    (It should be noted that Ontario is already at over 75% full vaccination for 12+ y.o.)

    Key Findings

    • Like other jurisdictions, Ontario is in the 4th wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our models, federal models, and models in other jurisdictions predict a substantial 4th wave.

     • Vaccination offers substantial protection against severe health outcomes. We do not expect to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated. Among the unvaccinated, we do expect to see a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education re-open in September.

    • The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity.
    • Because of the Delta variant and to avoid a lockdown in the Fall, vaccination needs to accelerate substantially above 85% of eligible population aged 12+ fully vaccinated and we need to reduce contacts to about 70% of pre-pandemic levels until vaccination is high enough to protect the population:
    -   Reducing indoor density, maintaining physical distancing, limiting large gatherings;
    -   Continuing indoor mask policies and working from home; and
    -   Implementing policies that accelerate vaccination (e.g. certificates, mandates, outreach).


  • 1 Sep 2021 10:17 AM
    Reply # 10973059 on 10972910
    Kym Butler wrote:

    The Canadian province of Ontario has (i) fairly similar demographics to NSW and Victoria, (ii) has an almost exclusively delta outbreak, (iii) has already effectively reached the 80% target of full vaccination with Western vaccines (mainly Pfizer) and (iv) presently has fairly strong restrictions of the type that Australian states are likely to consider after full lockdowns are withdrawn.

    In particular;

    • Demographics
    -  Ontario has about the same population as NSW and Victoria combined; i.e. is relatively similar size

    -   Per capita wealth is relatively similar to Australia, and ethnic diversity and history (at least for the last century) is roughly comparable

    -   Like Victoria and NSW, Ontario has a large metropolitan area (Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area) together with regional cities and rural area


    • 75% of the eligible population is presently fully vaccinated with Western Vaccines (primarily Pfizer, but some Astrazeneca and Moderna). However, the Ontario eligible population includes those persons 12 and over. Thus their 75% achievement is likely to be quite similar to the 80% of those over 16 that is the Australian target

    • The Ontario COVID 19 Roundtable (https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) estimates that 99.6% of the COVID cases in Ontario are the delta variant

    • The present COVID restrictions in Ontario are similar in nature to those that might be used by Australian states and territories after the COVID targets are met, and lockdowns are removed. For instance, rules in Ontario include (https://covid-19.ontario.ca/public-health-measures);
    -   Compulsory mask wearing indoors and sometimes outdoors
    -   Density limits at establishments, such as restaurants and retail
    -   Capacity limits at events and establishments
    -   Widespread implementation of rules limiting entry to events and establishments, so that only vaccinated persons can attend

    -   Rules for businesses and schools in the way they operate

    My question is why don’t we place more emphasis on information (data) from similar jurisdictions that are already at where the targets are, and not only on models whose inputs might, or might not, accurately reflect reality?


    Good Q! Looking fwd to any answers from those in the know.
  • 1 Sep 2021 8:34 AM
    Message # 10972910

    The Canadian province of Ontario has (i) fairly similar demographics to NSW and Victoria, (ii) has an almost exclusively delta outbreak, (iii) has already effectively reached the 80% target of full vaccination with Western vaccines (mainly Pfizer) and (iv) presently has fairly strong restrictions of the type that Australian states are likely to consider after full lockdowns are withdrawn.

    In particular;

    • Demographics
    -  Ontario has about the same population as NSW and Victoria combined; i.e. is relatively similar size

    -   Per capita wealth is relatively similar to Australia, and ethnic diversity and history (at least for the last century) is roughly comparable

    -   Like Victoria and NSW, Ontario has a large metropolitan area (Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area) together with regional cities and rural area


    • 75% of the eligible population is presently fully vaccinated with Western Vaccines (primarily Pfizer, but some Astrazeneca and Moderna). However, the Ontario eligible population includes those persons 12 and over. Thus their 75% achievement is likely to be quite similar to the 80% of those over 16 that is the Australian target

    • The Ontario COVID 19 Roundtable (https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) estimates that 99.6% of the COVID cases in Ontario are the delta variant

    • The present COVID restrictions in Ontario are similar in nature to those that might be used by Australian states and territories after the COVID targets are met, and lockdowns are removed. For instance, rules in Ontario include (https://covid-19.ontario.ca/public-health-measures);
    -   Compulsory mask wearing indoors and sometimes outdoors
    -   Density limits at establishments, such as restaurants and retail
    -   Capacity limits at events and establishments
    -   Widespread implementation of rules limiting entry to events and establishments, so that only vaccinated persons can attend

    -   Rules for businesses and schools in the way they operate

    My question is why don’t we place more emphasis on information (data) from similar jurisdictions that are already at where the targets are, and not only on models whose inputs might, or might not, accurately reflect reality?


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