Dear Members of the South Australian Branch of the Statistical Society.
Date: WEDNESDAY 21 MARCH 2018
Time: 5.30 for 6.05 pm
Venue: University of Adelaide, North Terrace
Room: Napier 210
Campus map is available at http://www.adelaide.edu.au/campuses/northtce/ .
Election of Returning Officer, Branch officers, Council and Public Officer
Please note only financial members of the society will be eligible to vote in person, or by proxy.
While a number of council members are willing to stand for office again, this is a first call for nominations for the positions of:
President, Vice-President, Secretary and Treasurer and, Councillor positions assist in the following tasks related to local activities and the relationship with the central SSAI:
Newsletter correspondent, Young Stats organiser(s), Website coordinator, Speaker program manager.
Nominations are called for all positions and may be communicated to the Secretary Paul Sutcliffe ([email protected] or 0438446064) before the meeting or may be made from the floor at the meeting.
AGENDA – ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
- Minutes of the 2017 Annual General Meeting
- Annual Report
- Election of Returning Officer, Branch officers, Council and Public Officer
- Treasurers Report
- Election of Auditor
- Any other business
- Speakers: Julian Whiting (ABS).
Speaker: Julian Whiting.
Title: Improving seasonal adjustment by accounting for sample error correlation using state space models
Abstract: When producing time series, national statistical organisations (NSOs) seek to derive seasonally adjusted series in which measurement errors have been minimised and systematic and calendar related effects are removed. Time series derived from survey data contain a sample error component, and for surveys with a rotating panel design such errors are correlated over time. Current seasonal adjustment processes used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and most other NSOs do not account for this, leaving sample error spread across the trend, seasonal and irregular components of the time series. In this talk I will present a seasonal adjustment method which firstly uses a structural time series model to estimate the sample error contribution, and subsequently removes estimates of the sample error before applying existing seasonal adjustment processes. I will discuss results of a simulation study which assessed the method’s properties and its performance relative to the current seasonal adjustment approach.
Biography: After completing a degree in computer science and statistics at the University of Adelaide, Julian commenced working in the Methodology Division of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). During his time at the ABS Julian has had a variety of roles as a survey methodologist, and for many years he worked on sample design and estimation methods for ABS household surveys such as the Labour Force survey. More recently he used predictive modelling and optimisation methods to assist with planning the data collection for the 2016 Census. Julian currently works in the time series analysis section of Methodology Division, conducting method development and providing support to collection areas for their seasonal adjustment.
Dinner: After the AGM, all are welcome to adjourn with the speaker to Café Amore, 170 Pulteney Street, Adelaide.
Please rsvp for dinner to [email protected] by 19th March 2018.
Statistical Society of Australia
Tel. 0438 446 064
|Time:||5:30 pm - 7:15 pm|
University of Adelaide, North Terrace,