2007 Cornish Lecture

This presentation was based on an invited paper presented at the OECD World Forum 2007 and is available publically at the following link: OECD invited paper.

Date: Wednesday 17 October, 2007

Speaker: Mr Dennis Trewin, Former Australian Statistician and a member of Australian State of the Environment Committee

Title: Statistical Critique of the International Panel on Climate Change’s work on Climate Change.

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the most important issues facing us today. Many governments and others have introduced or are developing appropriate policy interventions to (a) reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate future climate change, or (b) adapt to future climate change. This important work deserves a high quality statistical data base but there are statistical shortcomings in the work of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There has been very little involvement of qualified statisticians in the very important work of the IPCC which appears to be scientifically meritorious in most other ways.

Dennis will explain these shortcomings and outline his views on likely future climate change taking account of the statistical deficiencies. His conclusions suggest climate change is still an important issue that needs to be addressed but the range of likely outcomes is a lot lower than has been suggested by the IPCC.

Dennis is member of a Committee commissioned by the Australian Government to provide an independent report on the State of the Environment.

This presentation will be based on an invited paper presented at the OECD World Forum.