Branch Meetings

Branch Meetings for 2017 Poster

​​Statistical Society of Australia Canberra Branch Meeting
Date: Tuesday 2 May 2017

Times:
5.15pm
 Refreshments in Room 1175A, John Dedman Building, ANU http://campusmap.anu.edu.au/displaymap.asp?grid=gh32 [Building 27] 6.00pm Presentation by Sandy Burden in Room G035, 
John Dedman Building, ANU
7.30pm After the talk there will be a dinner at iPho restaurant, 10 Rudd Street, Canberra http://www.ipho.net.au/menu/  Please note the new address as the place moved quite recently to this address https://goo.gl/maps/QK2U7Mi4o8y 

Please RSVP Francis Hui (SSA Canberra or reply to this email directly) by Monday 1 May if you would like to attend the dinner. 
 

Speaker: Sandy Burden, University of Wollongong

TopicExceeding the threshold: Estimating Australian temperature exceedances

Abstract:

When an environmental process is observed to exceed a threshold, it is often an indicator of unusual or anomalous environmental conditions.  Questions about the exceedance naturally arise, and there is often widespread interest in predicting when, where, and by how much the threshold is actually exceeded.  This is often a challenging problem because observations are sparse and noisy, and although statistical methods that take advantage of spatial dependence can be used to model the process, the resulting estimates are uncertain.
 
In this talk, I consider the exceedance prediction problem for spatial fields of mean monthly maximum temperature (maxT).  I outline an approach for predicting exceedances that results in predicted exceedances with known statistical properties.  In the example, I consider a natural resource management region in Eastern Australia.  I model maxT using a hierarchical spatial statistical model, and obtain predicted exceedances for each month over time.  I quantify their uncertainty and make comparisons with an alternative standard approach.

Francis Hui
SSA Canberra
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